Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
