A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
